Oscars Betting Guide 2026

    The time from nominations to awards grows every year and allows more build up and campaigning. So to get good value on your bets they need to be in as early as possible. Warning: you can truly ruin the show by checking the lines right before the awards start. I would get these bets in now because the lines will move once the books find out a shark like me has put out his guide. My credentials are as follows: I've watched all ten best picture nominees. The lines are provided by Fan Duel in New Jersey where Oscars betting is legal. It's not allowed everywhere for whatever reason, but you can use that wild west service called Polymarket and bet on the Oscars or the future of Iran from anywhere?

Picks for the Oscar's Awards in Show Order:

1. Best Supporting Actor- Stellan Skarsgård (-160) will win this because Sentimental Value will be shut out of the big awards. Skarsgård is a worthy winner too and it's a little bit of a career recognition award. But, Sean Penn (+400) was the best in this category. Lockjaw was the funniest character since Borat. Good value/race could develop.
2. Best Costume Design- Sinners (+700) is my pick as a period piece that is also a fun pick for the voters, but I don't know what costume voters are looking for. They make Michael B Jordan's clothes form fitting to his massive muscles even though it probably doesn't fit the period.
3. Best Original Score- Hamnet (+2000) has the traditional score that usually wins even though it's not the best. It ends with "On the Nature of Daylight" which looks like it's officially on the score soundtrack, but that's 20 years old and still somehow deserves the award. Sinners (-1500) will win so don't waste your money on best score. 
4. Best Makeup & Hairstyling- Frankenstein (-1600) will win something because the academy loves Guillermo Del Toro. They did a good job making Elordi look more freakish, so they deserve something I guess.
5. Best Adapted Screenplay- One Battle After Another (-1500) gets this one as an early sign it's their night. The book was popular (haven't read yet), but thankfully this movie is actually adapted unlike other nominees that feel like great books being filmed.
6. Best Original Screenplay- Sinners (-400) isn't the best screenplay ever, but it will need to win a few awards. Great story and ideas that will make it a fun discussion and campaign for best picture. 
7. Best Supporting Actress- Teyana Taylor (-250) might not be the best written character in this category, but she went off in her limited usage. 
8. Best International Feature Film- Sentimental Value (-170) is the best of these that I've seen. Secret Agent (+150) just didn't translate well and that probably means it will win because the voters think they're being progressive somehow? International might be the best race of the night even though it will be blown past during the show (given 10 more seconds than usual "a record"). If it goes fully political, and it might, It Was Just an Accident (+900) will win so use your own judgement on that.
9. Best Film Editing- F1 (+150) in one of the closest races of the year is my pick simply because this movie is nominated for best picture on it's technical merits. Quickest movie of the year. 
10. Casting- Sinners (-300) found some big time performances. Also casting Michael B Jordan twice worked better than any double duty since Armie Hammer in Social Network. 
11. Best Production Design- Marty Supreme (+800) has lots of problems. It does create a world for Timothee to inhabit though. This is probably a New York bias pick and I don't care.
12. Best Sound- F1 (-600) was a movie I could have closed my eyes in the theater and felt everything. This win hurts its chances of winning editing, so monitor those lines.
13. Best Visual Effects- Avatar (-1200) because they're legally obligated to give James Cameron something. Even though nobody has seen this movie it has made $1.5 Billion and it deserves an award for that money laundering alone. 
14. Best Cinematography- Train Dreams (+300) in a race where voters will split between One Battle and Sinners, this strong third party contender gets it done. Great shots all film in a weak adaptation of a good book. 
15. Best Actor- Timothee Chalamet (-350) carries a movie in a way nobody has in a long time. He also sold it in the lead up which does factor in to the voting. Leo is the runner up and he gives a great point guard performance where you know he can take over but he cedes his points to his a great teammates. Timmy is the whole team though and this movie might terrible with anyone else.
16. Best Director- Paul Thomas Anderson (-1200) wins because this is just a stand in for best picture most years. 
17. Best Actress- Jessie Buckley (-1400) got to do a lot in this emotional non-rollercoaster because it's only down. Russell Westbrook MVP high usage type of performance where she got rebounds that weren't hers, but that's a writing problem. Similar to Timmy she got to put the movie on her back. If I had a vote it would go to Renate Reinsve (+2500).
18. Best Picture- One Battle After Another (-250) is the best movie top to bottom even though it has flaws. It should be a exciting race, Sinners is trying to make it one, but this year doesn't have a better candidate than One Battle. Happy ending, action, comedy, family story, political commentary, and enough to view it however you want.